2026 Preseason · Ratings generated Jul 23, 2026, 3:01 PM EDT

The market has opinions.
JP+ has data.

Opponent-adjusted play-by-play efficiency ratings for every FBS team. No wins, no polls, no point margins — just how teams actually play on each snap.

Weekly Picks Win Totals Futures

61.0%

ATS spread picks · blind holdout

62.4% in-sample (385-232-6)

62.4%

ATS game totals · blind holdout

65.2% in-sample (86-46-0)

+31.6%

ROI on win totals

84-47-4 · 20%+ EV filter

12.85

MAE · average miss vs final margin

lower is better · 3,481 games

Power Ratings

JP+ RatingOff profileDef profileST profile

Scale: points vs FBS average. JP+ Rating is the spread-model base surface; Off/Def/ST are explanatory profiles and may not sum in preseason or Week 1.

Rk	Team	JP+ Ratingpts vs avg	Off (Rk)	Def (Rk)	ST (Rk)
1	Ohio State Off. +9.0·Def. +13.9·ST +0.2	+25.5	+9.0 (9)	+13.9 (3)	+0.2 (20)
2	Oregon Off. +10.2·Def. +10.6·ST -0.2	+23.4	+10.2 (6)	+10.6 (6)	-0.2 (74)
3	Texas Tech Off. +2.6·Def. +15.5·ST +0.1	+22.9	+2.6 (42)	+15.5 (1)	+0.1 (24)
4	Indiana Off. +11.6·Def. +8.7·ST 0.0	+22.8	+11.6 (2)	+8.7 (12)	0.0 (46)
5	Georgia Off. +9.1·Def. +10.7·ST +0.5	+22.8	+9.1 (8)	+10.7 (5)	+0.5 (4)
6	Notre Dame Off. +10.8·Def. +9.8·ST -0.3	+21.6	+10.8 (5)	+9.8 (9)	-0.3 (87)
7	Ole Miss Off. +11.6·Def. +5.5·ST +0.8	+21.4	+11.6 (3)	+5.5 (20)	+0.8 (1)
8	Texas A&M Off. +8.7·Def. +8.1·ST -0.2	+19.1	+8.7 (10)	+8.1 (14)	-0.2 (77)
9	LSU Off. +0.3·Def. +14.4·ST +0.1	+19.0	+0.3 (63)	+14.4 (2)	+0.1 (28)
10	Texas Off. +6.6·Def. +9.6·ST -0.2	+18.3	+6.6 (16)	+9.6 (10)	-0.2 (69)
11	Miami Off. +7.1·Def. +10.0·ST -0.2	+18.0	+7.1 (14)	+10.0 (7)	-0.2 (72)
12	Alabama Off. +6.0·Def. +9.3·ST -0.4	+15.8	+6.0 (19)	+9.3 (11)	-0.4 (100)
13	Oklahoma Off. +3.4·Def. +11.5·ST +0.2	+15.7	+3.4 (35)	+11.5 (4)	+0.2 (16)
14	USC Off. +11.2·Def. +2.6·ST -0.3	+14.9	+11.2 (4)	+2.6 (37)	-0.3 (95)
15	Florida Off. +3.7·Def. +7.5·ST +0.4	+14.5	+3.7 (33)	+7.5 (16)	+0.4 (6)
16	Iowa Off. +2.3·Def. +9.8·ST +0.2	+14.3	+2.3 (44)	+9.8 (8)	+0.2 (19)
17	Michigan Off. +7.2·Def. +5.0·ST -0.1	+14.2	+7.2 (13)	+5.0 (22)	-0.1 (67)
18	Tennessee Off. +10.1·Def. +1.6·ST +0.5	+13.6	+10.1 (7)	+1.6 (45)	+0.5 (5)
19	Utah Off. +7.7·Def. +3.9·ST -0.3	+13.3	+7.7 (11)	+3.9 (28)	-0.3 (82)
20	Washington Off. +7.5·Def. +5.4·ST -0.5	+13.1	+7.5 (12)	+5.4 (21)	-0.5 (116)
21	Penn State Off. +5.6·Def. +4.5·ST +0.4	+12.7	+5.6 (21)	+4.5 (24)	+0.4 (9)
22	Vanderbilt Off. +11.6·Def. -0.7·ST +0.6	+12.6	+11.6 (1)	-0.7 (77)	+0.6 (3)
23	Missouri Off. +2.7·Def. +8.7·ST -0.3	+12.2	+2.7 (41)	+8.7 (13)	-0.3 (93)
24	Clemson Off. +1.4·Def. +7.2·ST 0.0	+10.7	+1.4 (50)	+7.2 (17)	0.0 (34)
25	Auburn Off. +0.9·Def. +8.0·ST 0.0	+10.4	+0.9 (56)	+8.0 (15)	0.0 (53)
26	South Carolina Off. +1.8·Def. +7.1·ST 0.0	+9.7	+1.8 (48)	+7.1 (18)	0.0 (31)
27	BYU Off. +4.7·Def. +4.2·ST 0.0	+9.6	+4.7 (26)	+4.2 (25)	0.0 (48)
28	SMU Off. +6.3·Def. +2.2·ST -0.4	+8.9	+6.3 (18)	+2.2 (41)	-0.4 (101)
29	Virginia Off. +0.7·Def. +6.9·ST -0.1	+8.2	+0.7 (58)	+6.9 (19)	-0.1 (66)
30	Florida State Off. +6.5·Def. +1.7·ST -0.2	+7.9	+6.5 (17)	+1.7 (44)	-0.2 (78)
31	Louisville Off. +3.5·Def. +4.1·ST -0.1	+7.8	+3.5 (34)	+4.1 (27)	-0.1 (62)
32	Nebraska Off. +5.7·Def. 0.0·ST +0.1	+7.2	+5.7 (20)	0.0 (71)	+0.1 (26)
33	Virginia Tech Off. +5.3·Def. +0.9·ST +0.2	+6.9	+5.3 (22)	+0.9 (52)	+0.2 (17)
34	Arizona Off. +1.5·Def. +5.0·ST -0.4	+6.7	+1.5 (49)	+5.0 (23)	-0.4 (104)
35	UCLA Off. +3.0·Def. +2.8·ST +0.4	+6.7	+3.0 (36)	+2.8 (35)	+0.4 (10)
36	South Florida Off. +2.9·Def. +2.3·ST -0.1	+6.1	+2.9 (38)	+2.3 (39)	-0.1 (61)
37	Kentucky Off. +0.5·Def. +3.4·ST +0.3	+5.7	+0.5 (60)	+3.4 (32)	+0.3 (13)
38	Georgia Tech Off. +4.4·Def. +0.5·ST 0.0	+5.6	+4.4 (27)	+0.5 (54)	0.0 (42)
39	Mississippi State Off. +4.3·Def. +0.2·ST +0.2	+5.5	+4.3 (28)	+0.2 (62)	+0.2 (14)
40	Illinois Off. +5.0·Def. -0.3·ST -0.1	+5.4	+5.0 (24)	-0.3 (73)	-0.1 (63)
41	Arkansas Off. +7.0·Def. -1.4·ST -0.3	+5.2	+7.0 (15)	-1.4 (86)	-0.3 (81)
42	TCU Off. +1.1·Def. +3.8·ST -0.3	+4.5	+1.1 (52)	+3.8 (30)	-0.3 (90)
43	Arizona State Off. +0.3·Def. +3.8·ST -0.4	+4.4	+0.3 (62)	+3.8 (29)	-0.4 (98)
44	Northwestern Off. +1.9·Def. +0.3·ST +0.1	+4.4	+1.9 (47)	+0.3 (59)	+0.1 (21)
45	Navy Off. +2.8·Def. -0.1·ST 0.0	+4.3	+2.8 (39)	-0.1 (72)	0.0 (40)
46	Wisconsin Off. -0.5·Def. +4.2·ST -0.3	+4.0	-0.5 (76)	+4.2 (26)	-0.3 (89)
47	Kansas State Off. +1.0·Def. +2.1·ST +0.2	+4.0	+1.0 (55)	+2.1 (42)	+0.2 (15)
48	Houston Off. +2.0·Def. +0.2·ST +0.7	+4.0	+2.0 (46)	+0.2 (63)	+0.7 (2)
49	NC State Off. +3.0·Def. +1.9·ST -0.7	+3.9	+3.0 (37)	+1.9 (43)	-0.7 (122)
50	Memphis Off. +1.4·Def. +1.1·ST +0.1	+3.8	+1.4 (51)	+1.1 (50)	+0.1 (27)
51	Kansas Off. +4.2·Def. -1.0·ST -0.1	+3.6	+4.2 (29)	-1.0 (81)	-0.1 (59)
52	Minnesota Off. +1.1·Def. +0.3·ST +0.3	+3.6	+1.1 (53)	+0.3 (60)	+0.3 (11)
53	Pitt Off. +0.6·Def. +3.4·ST -0.3	+3.3	+0.6 (59)	+3.4 (31)	-0.3 (97)
54	UNLV Off. +4.1·Def. -2.1·ST 0.0	+3.1	+4.1 (31)	-2.1 (95)	0.0 (45)
55	Baylor Off. +3.9·Def. -1.4·ST +0.4	+3.0	+3.9 (32)	-1.4 (85)	+0.4 (7)
56	Iowa State Off. +0.2·Def. +2.3·ST -0.1	+2.9	+0.2 (65)	+2.3 (40)	-0.1 (60)
57	Army Off. 0.0·Def. 0.0·ST 0.0	+2.8	0.0 (67)	0.0 (69)	0.0 (39)
58	Duke Off. +4.2·Def. -2.5·ST +0.1	+2.2	+4.2 (30)	-2.5 (100)	+0.1 (23)
59	Maryland Off. -1.2·Def. +2.6·ST -0.3	+2.0	-1.2 (83)	+2.6 (36)	-0.3 (96)
60	Cal Off. +0.2·Def. +0.1·ST +0.1	+2.0	+0.2 (64)	+0.1 (64)	+0.1 (30)
61	North Carolina Off. -0.4·Def. +0.7·ST 0.0	+1.9	-0.4 (72)	+0.7 (53)	0.0 (38)
62	Wake Forest Off. -0.2·Def. +3.3·ST -0.3	+1.8	-0.2 (70)	+3.3 (34)	-0.3 (88)
63	Colorado Off. +0.1·Def. +0.1·ST 0.0	+1.7	+0.1 (66)	+0.1 (66)	0.0 (32)
64	Air Force Off. -0.2·Def. -1.7·ST 0.0	+1.7	-0.2 (71)	-1.7 (89)	0.0 (43)
65	James Madison Off. -0.4·Def. +2.5·ST -0.3	+1.6	-0.4 (73)	+2.5 (38)	-0.3 (92)
66	Cincinnati Off. +2.5·Def. -1.2·ST 0.0	+1.5	+2.5 (43)	-1.2 (83)	0.0 (51)
67	Rutgers Off. +4.8·Def. -4.2·ST -0.3	+1.1	+4.8 (25)	-4.2 (116)	-0.3 (94)
68	UCF Off. +0.4·Def. +0.1·ST +0.2	+1.1	+0.4 (61)	+0.1 (65)	+0.2 (18)
69	Purdue Off. +0.8·Def. 0.0·ST +0.1	+1.0	+0.8 (57)	0.0 (70)	+0.1 (22)
70	San Diego State Off. -2.6·Def. +3.3·ST +0.1	+0.5	-2.6 (97)	+3.3 (33)	+0.1 (25)
71	East Carolina Off. -0.5·Def. +1.4·ST -0.4	+0.4	-0.5 (75)	+1.4 (47)	-0.4 (99)
72	UTSA Off. +1.0·Def. +0.4·ST -0.7	+0.1	+1.0 (54)	+0.4 (55)	-0.7 (121)
73	UConn Off. 0.0·Def. -2.0·ST 0.0	-0.3	0.0 (68)	-2.0 (93)	0.0 (33)
74	West Virginia Off. -1.8·Def. +1.2·ST -0.2	-0.5	-1.8 (86)	+1.2 (48)	-0.2 (73)
75	Oklahoma State Off. +5.2·Def. -0.9·ST -0.1	-0.5	+5.2 (23)	-0.9 (80)	-0.1 (56)
76	Michigan State Off. -0.6·Def. -0.3·ST -0.2	-0.6	-0.6 (78)	-0.3 (74)	-0.2 (68)
77	Tulane Off. -0.9·Def. -1.0·ST +0.4	-0.8	-0.9 (81)	-1.0 (82)	+0.4 (8)
78	Boise State Off. -2.6·Def. +1.4·ST -0.2	-1.1	-2.6 (98)	+1.4 (46)	-0.2 (71)
79	Fresno State Off. -3.3·Def. +1.1·ST -0.1	-1.4	-3.3 (103)	+1.1 (51)	-0.1 (58)
80	North Dakota State Off. -0.7·Def. -0.7·ST 0.0	-1.4	-0.7 (80)	-0.7 (76)	0.0 (36)
81	Texas State Off. +2.0·Def. -3.9·ST -0.1	-2.4	+2.0 (45)	-3.9 (114)	-0.1 (57)
82	Miami (OH) Off. -2.5·Def. -0.8·ST 0.0	-2.4	-2.5 (96)	-0.8 (78)	0.0 (47)
83	Temple Off. -0.6·Def. -2.6·ST -0.3	-2.6	-0.6 (77)	-2.6 (103)	-0.3 (83)
84	Hawaii Off. -1.4·Def. -2.1·ST +0.3	-2.7	-1.4 (84)	-2.1 (94)	+0.3 (12)
85	Washington State Off. -2.1·Def. +0.3·ST -0.2	-2.7	-2.1 (90)	+0.3 (58)	-0.2 (76)
86	Liberty Off. -0.7·Def. -2.2·ST -0.3	-2.7	-0.7 (79)	-2.2 (97)	-0.3 (91)
87	Syracuse Off. -2.2·Def. -1.5·ST 0.0	-2.8	-2.2 (91)	-1.5 (87)	0.0 (49)
88	Boston College Off. -0.1·Def. -2.5·ST 0.0	-3.0	-0.1 (69)	-2.5 (101)	0.0 (44)
89	Utah State Off. -0.9·Def. -1.9·ST -0.4	-3.0	-0.9 (82)	-1.9 (91)	-0.4 (107)
90	North Texas Off. +2.7·Def. -4.2·ST -0.3	-3.1	+2.7 (40)	-4.2 (117)	-0.3 (86)
91	Western Kentucky Off. -3.4·Def. +0.4·ST 0.0	-3.4	-3.4 (105)	+0.4 (56)	0.0 (50)
92	Stanford Off. -3.7·Def. +0.3·ST -0.4	-3.6	-3.7 (108)	+0.3 (61)	-0.4 (103)
93	Marshall Off. -2.5·Def. -1.3·ST 0.0	-3.6	-2.5 (93)	-1.3 (84)	0.0 (35)
94	New Mexico Off. -2.0·Def. -2.0·ST +0.1	-4.3	-2.0 (88)	-2.0 (92)	+0.1 (29)
95	Western Michigan Off. -5.1·Def. +1.2·ST -0.4	-4.4	-5.1 (116)	+1.2 (49)	-0.4 (109)
96	Toledo Off. -3.9·Def. +0.1·ST -0.5	-4.6	-3.9 (113)	+0.1 (67)	-0.5 (117)
97	Tulsa Off. -3.2·Def. -2.2·ST -0.1	-5.5	-3.2 (102)	-2.2 (96)	-0.1 (55)
98	Kennesaw State Off. -1.5·Def. -3.2·ST -0.8	-5.6	-1.5 (85)	-3.2 (108)	-0.8 (128)
99	FAU Off. -1.9·Def. -3.7·ST -0.1	-5.9	-1.9 (87)	-3.7 (112)	-0.1 (64)
100	Jacksonville State Off. -2.1·Def. -3.6·ST -0.5	-5.9	-2.1 (89)	-3.6 (111)	-0.5 (111)
101	Arkansas State Off. -3.4·Def. -3.2·ST -0.2	-6.0	-3.4 (106)	-3.2 (107)	-0.2 (79)
102	Appalachian State Off. -2.9·Def. -3.5·ST -0.2	-6.1	-2.9 (100)	-3.5 (109)	-0.2 (70)
103	Old Dominion Off. -2.6·Def. +0.3·ST -2.0	-6.1	-2.6 (99)	+0.3 (57)	-2.0 (137)
104	Georgia Southern Off. -0.4·Def. -6.8·ST -0.2	-6.5	-0.4 (74)	-6.8 (129)	-0.2 (80)
105	Oregon State Off. -3.9·Def. -1.8·ST -1.5	-6.7	-3.9 (112)	-1.8 (90)	-1.5 (132)
106	Louisiana Tech Off. -5.3·Def. -0.5·ST -0.4	-6.8	-5.3 (117)	-0.5 (75)	-0.4 (105)
107	Colorado State Off. -2.5·Def. -4.3·ST -0.5	-7.0	-2.5 (94)	-4.3 (118)	-0.5 (110)
108	Troy Off. -4.8·Def. -1.7·ST -0.4	-7.4	-4.8 (115)	-1.7 (88)	-0.4 (108)
109	FIU Off. -4.3·Def. -2.6·ST -0.4	-7.6	-4.3 (114)	-2.6 (102)	-0.4 (102)
110	Buffalo Off. -6.3·Def. -2.6·ST 0.0	-8.3	-6.3 (124)	-2.6 (104)	0.0 (52)
111	Ohio Off. -3.3·Def. -3.1·ST -1.5	-8.7	-3.3 (104)	-3.1 (106)	-1.5 (133)
112	Bowling Green Off. -6.1·Def. -4.1·ST -0.2	-10.1	-6.1 (123)	-4.1 (115)	-0.2 (75)
113	Central Michigan Off. -5.8·Def. -3.6·ST -0.4	-10.2	-5.8 (121)	-3.6 (110)	-0.4 (106)
114	Louisiana Off. -5.8·Def. -4.6·ST -0.3	-10.4	-5.8 (120)	-4.6 (119)	-0.3 (84)
115	Rice Off. -7.6·Def. -2.4·ST 0.0	-10.4	-7.6 (127)	-2.4 (98)	0.0 (41)
116	UAB Off. -3.1·Def. -6.0·ST -1.1	-10.4	-3.1 (101)	-6.0 (125)	-1.1 (131)
117	South Alabama Off. -3.7·Def. -5.2·ST -1.1	-10.7	-3.7 (107)	-5.2 (120)	-1.1 (130)
118	Coastal Carolina Off. -5.4·Def. -5.2·ST -0.5	-11.1	-5.4 (118)	-5.2 (121)	-0.5 (118)
119	Delaware Off. -3.8·Def. -6.6·ST -0.5	-11.2	-3.8 (110)	-6.6 (128)	-0.5 (113)
120	San Jose State Off. -2.5·Def. -5.2·ST -1.7	-11.2	-2.5 (95)	-5.2 (122)	-1.7 (135)
121	Missouri State Off. -3.8·Def. -6.4·ST -0.8	-11.7	-3.8 (111)	-6.4 (127)	-0.8 (125)
122	Wyoming Off. -9.1·Def. +0.1·ST -1.6	-11.7	-9.1 (130)	+0.1 (68)	-1.6 (134)
123	Eastern Michigan Off. -2.3·Def. -8.7·ST -0.6	-12.2	-2.3 (92)	-8.7 (136)	-0.6 (119)
124	UTEP Off. -9.6·Def. -0.8·ST -0.8	-12.3	-9.6 (132)	-0.8 (79)	-0.8 (126)
125	Southern Miss Off. -6.6·Def. -3.8·ST -0.8	-12.6	-6.6 (125)	-3.8 (113)	-0.8 (124)
126	Nevada Off. -8.0·Def. -3.1·ST -0.1	-12.7	-8.0 (129)	-3.1 (105)	-0.1 (54)
127	Middle Tennessee Off. -3.8·Def. -7.9·ST -0.1	-13.6	-3.8 (109)	-7.9 (131)	-0.1 (65)
128	Akron Off. -7.4·Def. -6.4·ST -0.6	-14.6	-7.4 (126)	-6.4 (126)	-0.6 (120)
129	New Mexico State Off. -10.8·Def. -2.5·ST -0.5	-15.2	-10.8 (135)	-2.5 (99)	-0.5 (115)
130	Northern Illinois Off. -9.3·Def. -5.8·ST -0.3	-15.3	-9.3 (131)	-5.8 (123)	-0.3 (85)
131	Kent State Off. -7.7·Def. -8.2·ST -0.7	-16.9	-7.7 (128)	-8.2 (133)	-0.7 (123)
132	Ball State Off. -9.7·Def. -5.9·ST -1.1	-17.1	-9.7 (133)	-5.9 (124)	-1.1 (129)
133	Georgia State Off. -5.5·Def. -8.2·ST -1.8	-18.3	-5.5 (119)	-8.2 (134)	-1.8 (136)
134	ULM Off. -6.0·Def. -8.0·ST -2.7	-18.9	-6.0 (122)	-8.0 (132)	-2.7 (138)
135	Charlotte Off. -10.9·Def. -7.6·ST -0.5	-20.9	-10.9 (136)	-7.6 (130)	-0.5 (112)
136	Sam Houston Off. -10.0·Def. -8.7·ST -0.8	-21.4	-10.0 (134)	-8.7 (135)	-0.8 (127)
137	Sacramento State Off. -11.3·Def. -11.3·ST 0.0	-21.8	-11.3 (137)	-11.3 (137)	0.0 (37)
138	UMass Off. -11.6·Def. -11.7·ST -0.5	-25.9	-11.6 (138)	-11.7 (138)	-0.5 (114)