2026 Preseason · Data refreshed June 11, 2026

The market has opinions.
JP+ has data.

Opponent-adjusted play-by-play efficiency ratings for every FBS team. No wins, no polls, no point margins — just how teams actually play on each snap.

Weekly Picks Win Totals Futures

61.4%

ATS spread picks · blind holdout

in-sample 63.7% (408-233-6)

+34.7%

ROI on game totals (O/U)

113-51-3P · opening lines

+39.6%

ROI on win totals

115-52-6 · 20%+ EV filter

12.95

MAE — avg miss vs final margin

lower is better · 3,481 games

Power Ratings

JP+ RatingOff profileDef profileST profile

Scale: points vs FBS average. JP+ Rating is the spread-model base surface; Off/Def/ST are explanatory profiles and may not sum in preseason or Week 1.

Rk	Team	JP+ Ratingpts vs avg	Off (Rk)	Def (Rk)	ST (Rk)
1	Ohio State Off. +9.7·Def. +13.6·ST +0.2	+26.0	+9.7 (8)	+13.6 (3)	+0.2 (25)
2	Indiana Off. +12.8·Def. +9.7·ST +0.4	+24.7	+12.8 (1)	+9.7 (10)	+0.4 (15)
3	LSU Off. +2.7·Def. +15.9·ST +0.2	+24.2	+2.7 (36)	+15.9 (1)	+0.2 (33)
4	Texas Tech Off. +4.2·Def. +15.6·ST +0.5	+23.0	+4.2 (25)	+15.6 (2)	+0.5 (10)
5	Notre Dame Off. +11.2·Def. +10.2·ST -0.4	+22.9	+11.2 (5)	+10.2 (6)	-0.4 (120)
6	Oregon Off. +10.3·Def. +10.0·ST -0.0	+22.9	+10.3 (6)	+10.0 (8)	-0.0 (68)
7	Ole Miss Off. +11.7·Def. +5.5·ST +1.1	+21.8	+11.7 (4)	+5.5 (18)	+1.1 (1)
8	Georgia Off. +7.9·Def. +10.2·ST +0.8	+21.3	+7.9 (11)	+10.2 (5)	+0.8 (3)
9	Texas A&M Off. +7.8·Def. +8.7·ST -0.1	+19.2	+7.8 (12)	+8.7 (13)	-0.1 (97)
10	Miami Off. +7.4·Def. +10.2·ST +0.1	+19.1	+7.4 (14)	+10.2 (7)	+0.1 (43)
11	Texas Off. +6.0·Def. +9.3·ST -0.1	+18.0	+6.0 (16)	+9.3 (11)	-0.1 (91)
12	USC Off. +11.9·Def. +3.3·ST -0.0	+17.7	+11.9 (2)	+3.3 (30)	-0.0 (72)
13	Alabama Off. +5.7·Def. +9.1·ST -0.1	+16.2	+5.7 (17)	+9.1 (12)	-0.1 (93)
14	Tennessee Off. +10.2·Def. +2.5·ST +0.5	+15.4	+10.2 (7)	+2.5 (35)	+0.5 (8)
15	Michigan Off. +7.5·Def. +4.9·ST -0.1	+15.0	+7.5 (13)	+4.9 (21)	-0.1 (96)
16	Oklahoma Off. +3.3·Def. +10.8·ST +0.4	+14.7	+3.3 (30)	+10.8 (4)	+0.4 (17)
17	Utah Off. +8.5·Def. +4.9·ST -0.1	+14.6	+8.5 (9)	+4.9 (22)	-0.1 (88)
18	Washington Off. +8.4·Def. +5.7·ST -0.4	+14.4	+8.4 (10)	+5.7 (17)	-0.4 (122)
19	Iowa Off. +2.5·Def. +9.8·ST +0.5	+14.3	+2.5 (37)	+9.8 (9)	+0.5 (11)
20	Vanderbilt Off. +11.9·Def. -0.5·ST +0.9	+13.0	+11.9 (3)	-0.5 (72)	+0.9 (2)
21	BYU Off. +4.9·Def. +4.8·ST +0.2	+10.5	+4.9 (22)	+4.8 (23)	+0.2 (32)
22	Penn State Off. +4.5·Def. +4.0·ST +0.8	+10.4	+4.5 (23)	+4.0 (26)	+0.8 (4)
23	Missouri Off. +2.5·Def. +7.3·ST -0.0	+10.2	+2.5 (38)	+7.3 (14)	-0.0 (66)
24	Florida Off. +2.8·Def. +5.0·ST +0.4	+9.8	+2.8 (34)	+5.0 (20)	+0.4 (14)
25	Auburn Off. +1.2·Def. +6.0·ST +0.1	+8.4	+1.2 (50)	+6.0 (16)	+0.1 (44)
26	South Carolina Off. +1.0·Def. +6.3·ST -0.0	+8.4	+1.0 (53)	+6.3 (15)	-0.0 (65)
27	Florida State Off. +6.2·Def. +1.8·ST -0.0	+8.0	+6.2 (15)	+1.8 (41)	-0.0 (64)
28	SMU Off. +5.0·Def. +2.4·ST -0.1	+7.7	+5.0 (21)	+2.4 (36)	-0.1 (98)
29	Arizona Off. +0.7·Def. +5.3·ST -0.2	+6.5	+0.7 (55)	+5.3 (19)	-0.2 (103)
30	Louisville Off. +3.3·Def. +3.2·ST +0.2	+6.4	+3.3 (29)	+3.2 (32)	+0.2 (28)
31	Illinois Off. +5.5·Def. -0.1·ST +0.1	+6.4	+5.5 (18)	-0.1 (66)	+0.1 (48)
32	Virginia Tech Off. +5.1·Def. +0.5·ST +0.1	+6.2	+5.1 (20)	+0.5 (57)	+0.1 (46)
33	Clemson Off. -0.0·Def. +4.7·ST +0.1	+6.1	-0.0 (65)	+4.7 (24)	+0.1 (42)
34	Georgia Tech Off. +3.0·Def. +1.2·ST +0.3	+5.2	+3.0 (32)	+1.2 (46)	+0.3 (24)
35	Arizona State Off. +0.8·Def. +3.8·ST -0.3	+5.0	+0.8 (54)	+3.8 (28)	-0.3 (113)
36	Navy Off. +3.6·Def. +1.0·ST +0.2	+4.9	+3.6 (27)	+1.0 (50)	+0.2 (34)
37	Houston Off. +1.0·Def. +2.1·ST +0.2	+4.5	+1.0 (52)	+2.1 (39)	+0.2 (26)
38	Kentucky Off. +0.5·Def. +2.6·ST +0.1	+4.4	+0.5 (57)	+2.6 (34)	+0.1 (49)
39	Northwestern Off. +1.6·Def. +0.2·ST +0.7	+4.3	+1.6 (46)	+0.2 (62)	+0.7 (6)
40	Minnesota Off. +1.3·Def. +0.5·ST +0.2	+3.8	+1.3 (48)	+0.5 (58)	+0.2 (31)
41	Mississippi State Off. +3.1·Def. -0.3·ST +0.5	+3.8	+3.1 (31)	-0.3 (70)	+0.5 (9)
42	Virginia Off. -0.2·Def. +4.6·ST -0.0	+3.6	-0.2 (69)	+4.6 (25)	-0.0 (69)
43	James Madison Off. -0.2·Def. +3.8·ST +0.0	+3.4	-0.2 (70)	+3.8 (27)	+0.0 (54)
44	Arkansas Off. +5.5·Def. -2.3·ST +0.1	+3.0	+5.5 (19)	-2.3 (95)	+0.1 (47)
45	Pitt Off. +0.4·Def. +3.1·ST -0.1	+2.8	+0.4 (58)	+3.1 (33)	-0.1 (81)
46	TCU Off. +1.1·Def. +2.2·ST -0.1	+2.5	+1.1 (51)	+2.2 (38)	-0.1 (90)
47	Kansas State Off. +1.5·Def. +0.4·ST +0.3	+2.5	+1.5 (47)	+0.4 (59)	+0.3 (21)
48	Wake Forest Off. -0.0·Def. +3.6·ST -0.1	+2.4	-0.0 (64)	+3.6 (29)	-0.1 (99)
49	Memphis Off. +0.2·Def. +1.1·ST +0.6	+2.4	+0.2 (61)	+1.1 (49)	+0.6 (7)
50	Iowa State Off. +0.3·Def. +1.9·ST -0.0	+2.2	+0.3 (59)	+1.9 (40)	-0.0 (70)
51	North Carolina Off. -2.1·Def. +1.8·ST +0.3	+2.0	-2.1 (89)	+1.8 (43)	+0.3 (23)
52	South Florida Off. +1.2·Def. +1.4·ST -0.2	+1.9	+1.2 (49)	+1.4 (45)	-0.2 (109)
53	NC State Off. +2.1·Def. +1.0·ST -0.4	+1.8	+2.1 (41)	+1.0 (51)	-0.4 (119)
54	Kansas Off. +2.9·Def. -1.2·ST -0.0	+1.4	+2.9 (33)	-1.2 (77)	-0.0 (61)
55	Cincinnati Off. +2.5·Def. -1.5·ST +0.2	+0.8	+2.5 (39)	-1.5 (82)	+0.2 (39)
56	Army Off. +0.3·Def. +0.2·ST +0.0	+0.5	+0.3 (60)	+0.2 (63)	+0.0 (55)
57	Rutgers Off. +4.3·Def. -4.4·ST -0.0	+0.5	+4.3 (24)	-4.4 (116)	-0.0 (58)
58	UNLV Off. +2.8·Def. -2.9·ST -0.1	+0.4	+2.8 (35)	-2.9 (105)	-0.1 (84)
59	Michigan State Off. -0.3·Def. -0.2·ST -0.0	+0.3	-0.3 (73)	-0.2 (68)	-0.0 (77)
60	Cal Off. -0.8·Def. -0.3·ST -0.0	+0.1	-0.8 (75)	-0.3 (71)	-0.0 (63)
61	UCLA Off. +1.9·Def. -1.0·ST +0.3	+0.1	+1.9 (43)	-1.0 (75)	+0.3 (22)
62	Maryland Off. -2.4·Def. +2.2·ST -0.2	+0.1	-2.4 (92)	+2.2 (37)	-0.2 (105)
63	Purdue Off. +0.1·Def. -0.7·ST +0.4	-0.0	+0.1 (62)	-0.7 (73)	+0.4 (13)
64	Duke Off. +3.6·Def. -3.5·ST +0.2	-0.2	+3.6 (28)	-3.5 (109)	+0.2 (35)
65	Boise State Off. -1.9·Def. +1.5·ST -0.0	-0.2	-1.9 (85)	+1.5 (44)	-0.0 (74)
66	Baylor Off. +2.3·Def. -2.4·ST +0.4	-0.2	+2.3 (40)	-2.4 (96)	+0.4 (12)
67	West Virginia Off. -2.2·Def. +1.2·ST -0.1	-0.7	-2.2 (91)	+1.2 (47)	-0.1 (86)
68	San Diego State Off. -3.2·Def. +3.2·ST +0.3	-0.7	-3.2 (102)	+3.2 (31)	+0.3 (20)
69	Air Force Off. -0.1·Def. -2.0·ST -0.0	-0.8	-0.1 (68)	-2.0 (88)	-0.0 (60)
70	Nebraska Off. +1.8·Def. -2.2·ST +0.2	-0.9	+1.8 (45)	-2.2 (91)	+0.2 (30)
71	Fresno State Off. -2.6·Def. +0.8·ST +0.3	-1.0	-2.6 (95)	+0.8 (53)	+0.3 (18)
72	Miami (OH) Off. -2.5·Def. -0.2·ST +0.4	-1.0	-2.5 (93)	-0.2 (69)	+0.4 (16)
73	Tulane Off. -1.1·Def. -1.2·ST +0.7	-1.1	-1.1 (79)	-1.2 (78)	+0.7 (5)
74	Wisconsin Off. -2.1·Def. +1.8·ST -0.5	-1.2	-2.1 (90)	+1.8 (42)	-0.5 (126)
75	East Carolina Off. -1.0·Def. +0.7·ST -0.1	-1.3	-1.0 (78)	+0.7 (55)	-0.1 (85)
76	Oklahoma State Off. +4.2·Def. -1.3·ST +0.2	-1.6	+4.2 (26)	-1.3 (79)	+0.2 (27)
77	UTSA Off. -0.3·Def. -0.0·ST -0.5	-1.9	-0.3 (71)	-0.0 (65)	-0.5 (127)
78	Texas State Off. +1.9·Def. -3.9·ST +0.2	-2.4	+1.9 (42)	-3.9 (112)	+0.2 (36)
79	UCF Off. -0.1·Def. -1.8·ST -0.1	-2.5	-0.1 (67)	-1.8 (87)	-0.1 (78)
80	Old Dominion Off. -0.9·Def. +1.1·ST -1.1	-2.6	-0.9 (76)	+1.1 (48)	-1.1 (135)
81	Utah State Off. -0.9·Def. -1.7·ST -0.2	-2.9	-0.9 (77)	-1.7 (85)	-0.2 (104)
82	New Mexico Off. -2.1·Def. -0.7·ST +0.3	-3.0	-2.1 (88)	-0.7 (74)	+0.3 (19)
83	Hawaii Off. -1.7·Def. -1.7·ST -0.0	-3.0	-1.7 (82)	-1.7 (83)	-0.0 (67)
84	Temple Off. -0.0·Def. -3.4·ST -0.0	-3.1	-0.0 (66)	-3.4 (108)	-0.0 (71)
85	North Dakota State Off. +0.5·Def. -1.5·ST +0.0	-3.1	+0.5 (56)	-1.5 (81)	+0.0 (56)
86	Western Kentucky Off. -3.2·Def. +0.5·ST +0.1	-3.2	-3.2 (101)	+0.5 (56)	+0.1 (41)
87	Colorado Off. -2.0·Def. -1.7·ST -0.2	-3.3	-2.0 (87)	-1.7 (86)	-0.2 (111)
88	UConn Off. -0.3·Def. -4.0·ST +0.2	-3.5	-0.3 (72)	-4.0 (115)	+0.2 (37)
89	Jacksonville State Off. -1.7·Def. -2.5·ST -0.2	-3.8	-1.7 (83)	-2.5 (97)	-0.2 (102)
90	Boston College Off. +0.1·Def. -3.8·ST +0.1	-4.1	+0.1 (63)	-3.8 (110)	+0.1 (50)
91	Toledo Off. -3.8·Def. +0.3·ST -0.4	-4.7	-3.8 (109)	+0.3 (60)	-0.4 (121)
92	Western Michigan Off. -5.0·Def. +0.8·ST -0.2	-4.7	-5.0 (119)	+0.8 (54)	-0.2 (106)
93	Stanford Off. -4.9·Def. -0.1·ST -0.3	-4.9	-4.9 (117)	-0.1 (67)	-0.3 (114)
94	Marshall Off. -3.0·Def. -1.7·ST +0.2	-4.9	-3.0 (97)	-1.7 (84)	+0.2 (38)
95	Syracuse Off. -3.1·Def. -2.7·ST +0.1	-5.0	-3.1 (100)	-2.7 (100)	+0.1 (45)
96	Louisiana Tech Off. -4.7·Def. +0.2·ST -0.2	-5.1	-4.7 (113)	+0.2 (61)	-0.2 (110)
97	Troy Off. -3.6·Def. -1.1·ST -0.3	-5.1	-3.6 (107)	-1.1 (76)	-0.3 (116)
98	Ohio Off. -1.6·Def. -2.6·ST -1.0	-5.3	-1.6 (81)	-2.6 (98)	-1.0 (133)
99	Kennesaw State Off. -1.8·Def. -3.0·ST -0.3	-5.4	-1.8 (84)	-3.0 (106)	-0.3 (117)
100	Washington State Off. -4.1·Def. +0.0·ST +0.0	-5.4	-4.1 (111)	+0.0 (64)	+0.0 (53)
101	Southern Miss Off. -3.7·Def. -2.3·ST -0.4	-5.7	-3.7 (108)	-2.3 (93)	-0.4 (124)
102	Liberty Off. -1.6·Def. -3.8·ST -0.2	-5.8	-1.6 (80)	-3.8 (111)	-0.2 (107)
103	Appalachian State Off. -3.3·Def. -3.3·ST -0.0	-5.9	-3.3 (104)	-3.3 (107)	-0.0 (73)
104	Buffalo Off. -4.9·Def. -2.2·ST +0.1	-6.1	-4.9 (116)	-2.2 (92)	+0.1 (40)
105	North Texas Off. +1.8·Def. -5.8·ST -0.0	-6.3	+1.8 (44)	-5.8 (125)	-0.0 (59)
106	Arkansas State Off. -3.4·Def. -4.0·ST -0.0	-6.7	-3.4 (106)	-4.0 (113)	-0.0 (75)
107	Central Michigan Off. -5.0·Def. -2.3·ST -0.1	-7.7	-5.0 (118)	-2.3 (94)	-0.1 (101)
108	Delaware Off. -2.6·Def. -5.2·ST -0.2	-7.9	-2.6 (94)	-5.2 (120)	-0.2 (112)
109	Wyoming Off. -6.9·Def. +1.0·ST -1.4	-7.9	-6.9 (127)	+1.0 (52)	-1.4 (136)
110	Georgia Southern Off. -0.7·Def. -7.8·ST -0.1	-8.1	-0.7 (74)	-7.8 (129)	-0.1 (87)
111	Bowling Green Off. -6.0·Def. -2.9·ST -0.0	-8.1	-6.0 (122)	-2.9 (102)	-0.0 (62)
112	FIU Off. -4.8·Def. -2.9·ST -0.1	-8.3	-4.8 (114)	-2.9 (103)	-0.1 (80)
113	Tulsa Off. -4.8·Def. -2.8·ST +0.1	-8.3	-4.8 (115)	-2.8 (101)	+0.1 (52)
114	Missouri State Off. -3.0·Def. -5.2·ST -0.4	-8.7	-3.0 (98)	-5.2 (121)	-0.4 (118)
115	Colorado State Off. -3.4·Def. -5.0·ST -0.5	-8.7	-3.4 (105)	-5.0 (119)	-0.5 (128)
116	South Alabama Off. -3.1·Def. -4.9·ST -0.7	-8.9	-3.1 (99)	-4.9 (118)	-0.7 (129)
117	Louisiana Off. -5.4·Def. -4.0·ST -0.1	-8.9	-5.4 (120)	-4.0 (114)	-0.1 (100)
118	FAU Off. -3.2·Def. -5.4·ST -0.1	-9.8	-3.2 (103)	-5.4 (123)	-0.1 (82)
119	Rice Off. -7.2·Def. -2.6·ST +0.2	-9.9	-7.2 (128)	-2.6 (99)	+0.2 (29)
120	Nevada Off. -7.2·Def. -2.0·ST -0.1	-10.3	-7.2 (129)	-2.0 (89)	-0.1 (79)
121	San Jose State Off. -1.9·Def. -7.1·ST -0.1	-11.1	-1.9 (86)	-7.1 (128)	-0.1 (92)
122	Oregon State Off. -6.1·Def. -2.9·ST -1.7	-11.5	-6.1 (123)	-2.9 (104)	-1.7 (138)
123	Coastal Carolina Off. -6.2·Def. -5.5·ST -0.4	-11.8	-6.2 (124)	-5.5 (124)	-0.4 (123)
124	Eastern Michigan Off. -2.8·Def. -8.9·ST -0.2	-12.1	-2.8 (96)	-8.9 (135)	-0.2 (108)
125	Northern Illinois Off. -8.4·Def. -4.8·ST -0.1	-12.4	-8.4 (131)	-4.8 (117)	-0.1 (94)
126	Middle Tennessee Off. -4.3·Def. -7.0·ST +0.1	-12.5	-4.3 (112)	-7.0 (127)	+0.1 (51)
127	Akron Off. -6.9·Def. -5.4·ST -0.3	-13.0	-6.9 (126)	-5.4 (122)	-0.3 (115)
128	UTEP Off. -9.9·Def. -1.5·ST -0.8	-13.0	-9.9 (135)	-1.5 (80)	-0.8 (131)
129	UAB Off. -3.8·Def. -8.4·ST -1.1	-14.3	-3.8 (110)	-8.4 (132)	-1.1 (134)
130	Ball State Off. -8.7·Def. -5.9·ST -0.8	-15.3	-8.7 (132)	-5.9 (126)	-0.8 (130)
131	New Mexico State Off. -12.1·Def. -2.1·ST -0.0	-16.4	-12.1 (137)	-2.1 (90)	-0.0 (76)
132	ULM Off. -6.2·Def. -8.1·ST -0.1	-16.7	-6.2 (125)	-8.1 (131)	-0.1 (89)
133	Kent State Off. -8.1·Def. -7.9·ST -0.8	-16.8	-8.1 (130)	-7.9 (130)	-0.8 (132)
134	Georgia State Off. -5.8·Def. -8.9·ST -1.6	-18.4	-5.8 (121)	-8.9 (136)	-1.6 (137)
135	Sam Houston Off. -9.7·Def. -8.5·ST -0.5	-19.8	-9.7 (134)	-8.5 (133)	-0.5 (125)
136	Charlotte Off. -9.7·Def. -8.8·ST -0.1	-20.0	-9.7 (133)	-8.8 (134)	-0.1 (95)
137	Sacramento State Off. -10.7·Def. -12.0·ST +0.0	-21.5	-10.7 (136)	-12.0 (138)	+0.0 (57)
138	UMass Off. -12.8·Def. -11.5·ST -0.1	-25.8	-12.8 (138)	-11.5 (137)	-0.1 (83)